Preventing a Downswing

I've played poorly the last few times on Stars, and it's almost 100% attributable to the fact that I've not been thinking through the hands enough. Basically, the cycle starts like this: you have a losing day despite playing well (you get unlucky or run KK into AA or whatever), so the next time out you chase losses a bit by adding more tables than you normally play. This causes you to have less time to think, so you make the occasional fundamental error, which means more losing, which means more tables (or maybe longer sessions, which also leads to more mistakes), and so it goes.

If you catch this problem early enough, it's not a huge deal--as the cliche goes, "poker is measured in years, not days." A few bad days, or even a bad week, is just a bump in the road when you've been playing as long as I have. That said, it's obviously important to right the ship as quickly as you can.

What follows probably the best example of this downward spiral--I threw this hand in here (with a bit of explanation) because it's a mistake that many players will make and I want you to avoid this spot.



Poker Stars $2/$4 No Limit Hold'em - 9 players

SB: $283.90
BB: $400.00
UTG: $400.00
UTG+1: $400.00
UTG+2: $410.75
MP1: $488.00
MP2 (Tight-aggressive regular): $449.00
Hero (CO): $655.50
BTN: $1385.25

Pre Flop: ($6.00) Hero is CO with 9 9
4 folds, MP2 raises to $12, Hero raises to $36, 3 folds, MP2 calls $24


This is standard play here with the 99. You can argue for a smooth call or even a fold, but you're probably wrong, haha. I'm not gonna get into it here because it'll take forever to hash out the various alternatives and that's not the point of this post.


Flop: ($78.00) 4 5 4 (2 players)
MP2 checks, Hero checks

This is the ideal flop for us. When MP2 called our reraise out of position, we safely assign him a range of a big ace or a medium pocket pair. So, unless he has 55 (unlikely) or 44 (exceedingly unlikely), we're winning. I suppose he could have TT but we may be able to persuade MP2 to fold TT if we bet hard enough.

If MP2 has overcards, he probably will be done with the hand if we bet here. If he has a medium pocket pair, he's probably not going to fold to a bet here because he's still skeptical that we have him beat. (For what it's worth, we probably do have him beat.) I like to say that the opponent "needs convincing" that we have something like AA or KK, and it usually takes more than a flop bet to meet the burden of persuasion. That's a good thing, though--what typically happens is that we bet the flop, he calls (skeptically), we bet the turn, and--assuming the turn didn't help him--he folds (reluctantly). We end up winning more money than we would have had he simply folded on the flop.

Our hand is vulnerable to lots of overcards, so we probably would be content with a fold from our opponent. This isn't always the case, of course--if we had AA we'd want our opponent to stick around.

So, for all these reasons, we should certainly be betting this flop. We'll fold out overcards and we'll continue our story that we have a huge pocket pair. Clearly, checking here (as we did) is a mistake.

For what it's worth, I probably checked this flop here because I was feeling a bit exploitable/vulnerable. When you're losing, you realize just how easy it is for someone to bully you out of a pot. Rarely do I get it all-in against a regular without a very strong hand, so it'd be quite easy for MP2 to check-raise me and get me to fold. Now, of course, MP2 very rarely will make this play because he's more worried about stacking fish than getting into "regwarz" (fights with other regulars) and because if I have something like KK or AA he just threw away $400. It's very unhealthy for your poker bankroll if you're playing like a "catastrophist" (always assuming the worst), because it turns you tentative at very inopportune times.

Turn: ($78.00) A (2 players)
MP2 checks, Hero bets $52, MP2 asks for time, deliberates, and calls $52

I don't dislike this bet. Our opponent probably has us on a big ace or a pocket pair. When we checked the flop, he probably put us on a big ace because most pocket pairs would bet that flop. So, betting the ace (as a bluff, obviously--we don't want MP2 to call us here) continues our story that we have the opponent beat.

In this specific hand, MP2 "time-banked" before calling...that's often a sign of indecision. So, good try--we bet the turn hoping he'd fold, but he called. Oh, well--time to cut our losses and move on, right?

River: ($182.00) 2 (2 players)
MP2 checks, Hero bets $116, MP2 calls $116


I hate this river bet, and here's why: we tried on the turn to convince the regular that we had him beat. We almost persuaded him (he time-banked, after all), but we didn't convince him. So, after the river (the most harmless of cards), we try again to convince him? What an egregious mistake. Our chance to convince him came and went--firing on this river is akin to lighting money on fire.

No regular worth his salt will call the turn and then fold the river in a spot like this where the river changed nothing, because you have to play consistently if you want to win. This is actually a common mistake that losing regulars make too often--they call the turn to see what the opponent will do on the river...this is a losing play because you're merely putting off the decision or, alternatively, you're spending too much money on purchasing additional information (the additional information here is how the hero acts on the river).

**Note: this hand is not a perfect example because the opponent himself had an unbeatable ace, so he wasn't really deliberating so much as trying to induce a bluff from us on the river. It doesn't matter whether he had AK or JJ, though: we still should not ever be betting this river on a bluff. Once he called the turn we pretty much know he's going to be calling the river.

Final Pot: $414.00
MP2 shows K A (two pair, Aces and Fours)
Hero shows 9 9 (two pair, Nines and Fours)
MP2 wins $411.00
(Rake: $3.00)


Okay, so that hand was a disaster, but at least we learned from it.