Friday, February 25, 2011

Inducing the Spaz

(For my non-poker-playing readers, I've included a glossary of terms at the end of this post.  The words in bold in the body of the post are those that are defined at its end.)


This lesson deals with what I call the "spaz-induction" play.  Poker players use the term "spaz" to describe when a player attempts a high-risk, fairly ludicrous bluff that comes out of nowhere.  (You know how sometimes your opponent's play is a little suspicious, and a little voice pops into your head, saying, "you know what, I could probably just go all in and knock him off his hand"?  Most of us ignore that voice like 95% of the time, because the risk is too great that you'll be caught red-handed.  That other 5% of the time exemplifies spazzing.  Spazzing is such a great word for this phenomenon, because it illustrates the situation perfectly: you realize that the smart play is to fold and pick a better spot, but out of nowhere--and virtually uncontrollably--you ignore your superego and push all in with such spontaneity that it almost seems like a spasm.)  Spazzing is a form of tilt, and much like there are ways to provoke a player into tilting, there are methods for inducing a spaz.

Of course, before you decide to induce spaz, you have to make sure that you're willing to snap off your opponent.  After you induce spaz, your opponent is going to make an overbet for most of your chips--if you're not willing to call this big bet with a marginal hand (say, TPTK), it logically follows that you shouldn't provoke the spaz in the first place.

Okay, so now you know (1) what spaz is and (2) when you should or should not induce it.  Now we need to know how exactly we can provoke a spaz.  Obviously, there's no scientific formula, but the general way to do it is to play so bizarrely that your opponent gets flustered and, well, spazzes out.  Furthermore, your bizarre play should be an underbet as opposed to an overbet, so you can trick your opponent into believing that he can make a successful bluff.  Playing bizarrely, however, obviously means deviating from your standard (and theoretically perfect) play.  Thus, the bizarre deviation will necessarily be a less than optimal play in the long run.  As a result, you should only attempt to induce spaz when your hand is a virtual lock.

In the below example, my hand is very safe--the opponent has something along the lines of JJ or AJ, and thus has only a few outs.  We can afford to make a "bizarre" underbet here because even if he fails to spaz out and calls, he'll still be calling with improper pot odds.  If the board were wetter or if our opponent had a wider range, he'd have more outs and a bizarre bet would be ill-advised because it'd likely give our opponent favorable odds to call.

Poker Stars $2/$4 No Limit Hold'em - 9 players

BB: $86.00
UTG: $74.00
UTG+1: $112.65 [VPIP 10 PFR 7 through 30 hands]
UTG+2: $84.00
MP1: $80.00
MP2: $243.70 ***[VPIP 45 PFR 9 through 11 hands]***
CO: $74.00
Hero (BTN): $435.00
SB: $97.10

Pre Flop: ($6.00) Hero is BTN with AdKc
1 fold, UTG+1 calls $4, 2 folds, MP2 raises to $20, 1 fold, Hero raises to $60, 3 folds, MP2 calls $40

The preflop play is fairly standard.  Admittedly, MP2's preflop raise after a limper suggests some strength, but it's a -EV play to fold here when, as here, MP2 is likely a fish.  Some players may advocate for a smooth-call here on the premise that you should keep the pot small preflop so that you have more chips (and "weapons") at your disposal for the postflop play.  That argument is for a different day.

Flop: ($130.00) Ah 9s 7c
MP2 checks, Hero bets $52, MP2 raises to $183.70 all in, Hero calls $131.70

Here we see the spaz at work.  We underbet the pot, tempting our opponent to try a bluff.  To this point, the opponent probably had no plan but to check-fold this A-high flop (unless he has something like AJ, in which case it doesn't matter what we bet because he's never folding a pair of aces).  The funky bet probably gives him pause, though, and something like this goes through his head: "Hmm, what a small bet.  He would've bet much bigger if he had AK.  Hey, maybe he hates the ace on the flop as much as I do.  I've already got so much in this pot, and I hate just to throw away a hand like QQ.  I've been playing for an hour and haven't gotten a hand this good, and now I'm supposed to fold it?  Hell, no.  I'm gonna check/raise this donkey and show my hand when he folds.  ALL IN!"

SNAP-CALL-FIST-PUMP.

Turn: ($497.40) Tc

River: ($497.40) 8c

Final Pot: $497.40

MP2 shows QdQh
Hero shows AdKc

Hero wins $494.40
(Rake: $3.00)


Glossary:

-EV: Shorthand for less than optimal (origin: "negative expected value")

Check-fold (abbreviated "c/f"): To check, and then, if facing a bet from an opponent, to fold.  Ex: if you had 87 on a AK9 board, you'd probably be check-folding.

Check-raise (abbreviated "c/r"): To check, and then, if facing a bet from an opponent, to raise that bet.

Limper: One who calls the big blind (as opposed to raising it) preflop

Outs: cards that will win the player the pot.

Overbet: To bet a bigger percentage of the pot than what is common/expected.  Typically, a competent player bets about 70% the size of the pot on each street, so an example of an overbet would be when a player bets 125% the size of the pot.

Range: all possible hands an opponent could reasonably have.  Ex: if your opponent is fairly tight and has just reraised you before the flop, you can reasonably assign him a range of {TT, JJ, QQ, KK, AA, AQ, AK}, abbreviated as TT+, AQ+.

Snap Off: To call an opponent's bluff quickly and confidently.  In a sentence: "I put him on a missed flush draw and, being out of position, I checked to him, hoping that he'd try to bluff at the pot.  He did, and I snapped him off with bottom pair to drag the pot."

(Related: the phrase "snap-call-fist-pump", which means that you snap call (ie, call quickly) and celebrate (via fist pump) before the cards are flipped because you know your opponent is weak and that you have him crushed.)

Tilt: to allow an emotion (anger, frustration, boredom) to make you play less than optimally

TPTK: top pair, top kicker.  Ex's: AJ on a J32 board; AK on an A62 board.

Underbet: To bet a smaller percentage of the pot than what is common/expected.

VPIP/PFR:  Percentage of times that a player Voluntarily Puts Money into the Pot or makes a Pre-Flop Raise, respectively.  A tight player has a low VPIP, a loose player has a high VPIP, an aggressive player has a near 1-to-1 ratio of VPIP to PFR, and a passive (fishy) player typically has a much higher VPIP than PFR.

Wet: replete with draws.  For example, a board of Qd 9h 8h is wet because there are both straight draws and a flush draw out there.  A wet board means a few things: if you have a made hand, you typically want to bet to protect it.  Also, if you have a made hand, you're willing to get all-in with less of a hand than you'd be on a dry board because it's more likely that your opponent is semi-bluffing (pushing a draw in hopes that you fold).

Sunday, February 20, 2011

Robbing a Casino for Dummies

On December 14, 2010, the Bellagio got robbed.  The thief's modus operandi wasn't exactly reminiscent of Danny Ocean, however--more like Snake from The Simpsons.  He drove his motorcycle up to the front door, dashed in, and swiped $1.5m in chips at gunpoint from a craps table.  He bolted out, hopped on his bike, and drove off into the Vegas night.

Of course, if the story ended there, it wouldn't be newsworthy (or even blog-worthy).  The man had stolen both $5k chips and $25k chips known as "cranberries" for their distinct color.  (See the accompanying image.) 



While the $5k chips were easy enough to dispose of, the cranberries were too unique to simply bring them to a cage (the slang term for the cashier's window in a casino) and get them cashed.  As such, our friend the Biker Bandit went about trying to sell the cranberries at a discount.  (Note: a lot of other amusing stuff accompanied this robbery, as the police report indicates.  I recommend reading the report in full if you have some time to do so.)

Around the same time, the robbery was a bit of a hot topic on twoplustwo.com ("2p2"), a popular gambling forum.  Members wondered how easily a person could cash in a stolen chip, and one poster wondered, "over/under 20 times a day the robber views threads like these?"  Here's where the story gets good...

A poster who joined the forum in January of 2011 and went by the name "oceanspray25" and indicated his location is "Cranada" quoted this post and responded, "Under 20 but more than 3 brother. Know anyone lookin for a bargain on a few pieces of fruit? Great for the liver and kidney and they make great stocking stuffers" (emphasis added).  I know y'all have figured it out by now, but let's break it down anyways, just for hilarity's sake.

  •  First off, "oceanspray25?" "Cranada?"  I guess one reference to a cranberry didn't suffice--he needed three.
  • Believe it or not, people don't sell fruit on 2p2--let alone for bargains.
  • I like the reference to the body's internal organs, but I would've preferred a "what, you on your period or something?" allusion a la The Departed.  Alas.

Our buddy oceanspray25 clearly was so desperate to move this hot "fruit" that he put himself in plain sight on a popular forum.  In fact, he actually messaged another member to inquire about his interest in buying the cranberries.  Unsurprisingly, he got caught shortly thereafter.

The Biker Bandit clearly isn't playing with a full deck, but you've gotta admire his willingness to lay his chips on the table (so to speak).